50%!!!??!!?!?!?
You will find I said roughly 50%, and that was because I have had a few bourbons and couldnt be stuffed doing the math to be more precise. ;) You will find its probably not too far off � but on the high side.
I just found this little gem:
"104. Whilst a fibre to the node network will not provide the same service quality as fibre to the premise, there have been strong indications from parties of willingness to invest large amounts of capital. For example, Telstra originally proposed to Government a $5.7 billion fibre to the node network deployment (made up of $3.1 billion from Telstra and $2.6 billion from Government) to deploy a network capable of 6 Mbps. Telstra indicated that an additional contribution from Government of $2.1 billion would allow services of around 12 Mbps for 98% of the population.
27.Assuming Telstra would not make any further contribution, the total incremental capital cost would have been $7.8 billion. "
So THAT's where Turnbull get's his $6.7 Billion FTTN from. Obviously the government would have to pay MORE now as compared to then in respect to what Telstra pays, because of the FTTH.
Yeah.....so, how many people reckon 12Mbps for 98% of the population is likely???
Wow, have a read of that ACCC report. There's some GREAT numbers for FUD busting in there:
"Adjusting our new entrant fibre asset valuation
above, we reduce the copper network valuation to between $22.9 billion and $17.9
billion"
This was in 2009, when FTTH was getting going. They calculated a FTTH would add $10-$15 Billion to the value (so $27-$38 Billion total) of the whole country's network. So a full FTTH network would be worth say $32 Billion, while the copper would be worth $20 Billion.....yeah, I can see it's MUCH better to keep the copper network....
You will find I said roughly 50%, and that was because I have had a few bourbons and couldnt be stuffed doing the math to be more precise. ;) You will find its probably not too far off � but on the high side.
True. When you add in the extra backhaul already run for the FTTH beforehand, it'll probably increase the amount of FTTN overall. Not that that is a good thing. It just need to be all FTTH.
To solve this, you'd have to shorten my copper. And everyone else's in the same position. That is a MUCH bigger job, putting in nodes, than 12 months. Note he doesn't say its a guaranteed 12/1.
Turnbull needs to come out and say how close to premises nodes will be. 1500mtr? 1000mtr? 500mtr? The numbers of nodes involved for each shortening of the copper increases dramatically. If he is planning on guaranteeing speeds of 24-48mbps then he will at least have to look at nodes within 500mtrs.
And I'm sorry, but 4 YEARS for 24/1??? Almost half of Australia would have 100/40 by then??! Which is why FTTN cant be considered ubiquitous.
Turnbull needs to come out and say how close to premises nodes will be. 1500mtr? 1000mtr? 500mtr?
He won't. Cause he doesn't know. They haven't done any studies or planning. They're going off what Telstra is telling them behind their hands, while publicly Telstra are lauding the NBN, or sitting on the fence.
VDSL1 can give 50Mbps from 800m, otherwise....screwed...
Telstra gets an extra $8.2bn and the CAN Co gets instant revenue from ~9.5 million ULL services. Dunno if that's a win or a loss for either of them.
WOuld nearly have to be a loss for Can Co (looks like the name is changing yet again), because they would also then acquire the maintenance costs of an aging copper network with a customer base that is going to be reduced by FTTH and HFC, leaving the longest copper runs and poorest maintained areas to be serviced with less revenue.
He won't. Cause he doesn't know. They haven't done any studies or planning. They're going off what Telstra is telling them behind their hands, while publicly Telstra are lauding the NBN, or sitting on the fence.
This is where journalists let us down badly. Its simple questions like that that Turnbull should be pressed on,and all too often they are more interested in how he lost weight than comms policy.
VDSL1 can give 50Mbps from 800m, otherwise....screwed... Yep. And given that the average speed requirement in a few years (2015 I think) was forecast to be 39mbps, Turnbulls "solution" will be running at the upper end of capacity as soon as it is built.
Yep. And given that the average speed requirement in a few years (2015 I think) was forecast to be 39mbps, Turnbulls "solution" will be running at the upper end of capacity as soon as it is built.
Yes and when he's asked about that future capacity....he changes the subject to "Have you seen how much work I can get done on my iPad!?"
I REALLY wish Turnbull wasn't a Liberal at the moment...
I REALLY wish Turnbull wasn't a Liberal at the moment...
Given Abbott and Hockeys regular foot in mouth episodes, I suspect Turnbull wishes he wasnt a Liberal a lot of the time either ;)
It wouldnt be the first time.
http://www.dailytelegra
It wouldnt be the first time.
http://www.dailyteleg
Interesting.
I'd say from what I've seen he's a VERY left wing Liberal.....
Nope.
Valuations are based on cashflows.
That is wrong.
If you had said:
Yep.
Valuations are based on cashflows.
Then you would have been correct.
Valuations are based on cashflows.
how do you explain such a massive drop from copper when im fairly sure telstra havent reported any such massive drop in their cashflows?
Continues in Part 7
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